Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1312 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 1312 · PDX → SAN

departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 5:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1312 · PDX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?