Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AS 1409 · SMF → SEA
departs 6:13 AM PT · arrives 8:16 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to SEA?
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On time or early
90%
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15–30 min late
5%
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30 min–1 hour late
2%
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1–2 hours late
1%
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Over 2 hours late
<1%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.