Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1409SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1409 · SMF → SEA
departs 6:13 AM PT · arrives 8:16 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
14%chance · ±1 pts+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.