Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1412 · HNL → SAN

departs 9:55 PM HT · arrives 6:32 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 9pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1412 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?