Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AS 1427 · SEA → SMF

departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
45%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1427 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?