Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1427SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1427 · SEA → SMF
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.