Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1431 · SAN → SEA

departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1431 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?