Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1522 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1522 · LAX → SFO

departs 1:28 PM PT · arrives 2:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1522 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?