Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1607 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

departs 10:03 AM PT · arrives 11:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?