Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 1616 · PDX → RNO

departs 5:55 PM PT · arrives 7:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Arrivals into RNO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1616 · PDX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?