Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1616 · PDX → RNO

departs 5:57 PM PT · arrives 7:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Arrivals into RNO at that hour are often late

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1616 · PDX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?