Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 210 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 210 · FAI → SEA

departs 5:31 AM AKT · arrives 10:12 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAI

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 210 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?