Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 233 · LAX → EWR

departs 8:35 AM PT · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · LAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?