Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 253 · KOA → PDX

departs 11:58 AM HT · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ 11am departures from KOA are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 253 · KOA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?