Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 253 · KOA → PDX

departs 11:58 AM HT · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 253 · KOA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?