Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 406SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 406 · SEA → IAD
departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
25%chance · ±1 pts+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.