tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AS 406 · SEA → IAD

departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to IAD?

  1. On time or early
    81%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.