Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 406SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 406 · SEA → IAD
departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
36%chance · ±0 pts+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREHigh. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.