Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 409SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 409 · IAD → SEA
departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±0 pts−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.