Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 409SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 409 · IAD → SEA
departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%chance · ±0 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.