Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 430 · PDX → SEA

departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 6:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 430 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?