Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AS 474 · RDU → SAN
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 9:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to SAN?
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On time or early
66%
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15–30 min late
11%
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30 min–1 hour late
13%
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1–2 hours late
6%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.