Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 474SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 474 · RDU → SAN
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 9:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±8 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.