Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 520 · SEA → SAT

departs 10:58 PM PT · arrives 5:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 520 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?