Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 561 · SNA → SFO

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 2:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 561 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?