Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 561 · SNA → SFO

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 2:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 561 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?