Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 638SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 638 · SEA → SMF
departs 7:23 PM PT · arrives 9:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
38%chance · ±0 pts+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.