Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 638SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AS 638 · SEA → SMF
departs 7:23 PM PT · arrives 9:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.