Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 647 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 647 · SEA → STL

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 647 · SEA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?