Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AS 811 · SFO → HNL

departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 11:10 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 811 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?