tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AS 811 · SFO → HNL

departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 11:10 AM HT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 96h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.5d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to HNL?

  1. On time or early
    73%
  2. 15–30 min late
    13%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    8%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.