Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 869 · LGB → HNL

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:50 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at LGB that day

↓ 7am departures from LGB are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 869 · LGB → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?