Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

departs 12:25 PM HT · arrives 8:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at LGB that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

LGB (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?