Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 968 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

departs 1:06 PM HT · arrives 9:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?