Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 968 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

departs 1:06 PM HT · arrives 9:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?