Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
B6 1586 · MCO → BUF
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.