Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
B6 1586 · MCO → BUF
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/3 47%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.