Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 3:22 PM AT · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.