Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 2:10 PM AT · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
SJU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.