Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 455 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

B6 455 · BOS → DCA

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 455 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?