Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1251 · ATL → TUS
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at TUS that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.