Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1251 · ATL → TUS
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at TUS that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.36 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.