Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1275 · TPA → RDU
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.