Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
DL 1279 · RDU → TPA
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 8:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 3%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.