Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1686 · PHL → DTW
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.