Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1686 · PHL → DTW
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.