Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 1730 · MCO → MSP
departs 11:17 AM ET · arrives 1:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Sat 10/10 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−27 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −27 pts in 24h
−27 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −29 pts in 24h
−29 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.