Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2078
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2078 · MSP → SFO
departs 9:24 AM CT · arrives 11:32 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.