Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2181 · MSP → AVL
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 8%
Sat 10/10 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.