Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2185 · SNA → MSP
departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 1:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−27 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −27 pts in 24h
−27 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
8am departures from SNA are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.